任何事，要計算回酬，首先得弄清楚成本。就像去工作，也得計算每天付出的成本如車油、時間等等是否能換回更高的回酬，所付出的值不值得。
基金投資尤其適合剛開始投資的投資者，但單位信託基金初期投資成本高，因此在投資前，應該搞清楚相關成本。專家認為，一般上投資基金需要考慮的費用是最初服務收費（Initial Service Charge）和年費。
收費越低越好，但是切記必須以同種類的基金作出比較，因為債券基金一般成本較股票基金低，長期內依然可以帶來相當高回酬，炒作因素也相對少。
根據大馬投資經理聯合會（FiMM）網站資料，最初服務收費也被稱為服務費、銷售費、入場費等，是基金投資者投資基金的成本，作為持有基金單位期間，基金行銷和分銷、基金經理的管理費等費用。
須先支付費用
資料顯示，一般上基金投資者必須先支付5%至10%的提前收費，其中很大部分是代理的佣金。假設這項收費是5%，投資10萬令吉，就有5000令吉被扣出來當做服務收費，剩下的9萬5000才做投資，屬基金資產淨值（NAV）。另外，基金管理費一般每年介于資產淨值的1至1.5%，是基金管理成本。
除了行政費，主要是基金經理的酬勞，會在從相關基金的淨資產值扣除后支付給基金經理，無需理會該基金表現。
信託費（trustee fee）則是受托人的服務費，作為監管基金營運的酬勞。這項成本是以每日計算，而且從基金的淨資產值中扣除。此外，基金的其他開銷還包括審核費、稅務、招股書和年報的印刷費用、郵費、印刷費等等，都從基金淨資產值中扣除。
提前贖回遭徵收費
一般徵收了初期成本的基金，不會向投資者徵收贖回費用。惟一些基金比如保本基金，在未到期前贖回，就會要徵收贖回收費，未到屆滿期贖回基金的舉動不被鼓勵。
也有一些沒有徵收提前收費的基金，會以每年遞減的方式徵收贖回費用。如第一年內贖回就徵收淨資產值得3%，以此類推，第三年后就無需贖回費。
轉換費，屬于次級收費，一般是轉換基金的時候才會被徵收，不同基金公司有不同的規則。一些公司允許投資者在一年內進行兩次免費轉換，一些則一年一次，也有公司不給予無免費轉換。
發行時認購巧妙省成本
基金新發行的時候，申購費用會比較低，所以若看好一隻基金前景，又想要節省手續費用，應該盡量在發行時就認購。
此外，紅利再投資不僅節省申購費也能達到復利效果。如果投資者看好一隻基金未來的成長潛力，選擇紅利再投資的分紅方式，首先就節省了申購費。然后由于按照除息日的基金分額淨值為計算基準，確定再投資份額，增加到投資者的賬戶中，這種方式發揮複利效應，提高基金實際收益。
若真看好其他基金前景，投資者應該把握免費或同公司旗下基金產品間免費轉換的優惠。不過投資者必須注意，常常更換基金未必能達到想要的投資效果，即便免費也不應該隨便轉換。
Friday, September 16, 2011
定期定額投資須堅持
投資看似簡單但不容易，加上大部分人都為工作和生活忙碌，無法花費更多時間精心研究每一種投資工具，因此定期定額投資（簡稱定投）是“懶人”最主要的投資策略。
但怎樣定投才會獲得回酬，是不是所有基金都適合定期定額投資呢？
專家指出，要通過定投獲得回酬，成功的秘訣在于堅持，不能因為基金賬面淨值一時虧損而覺得自己虧了錢，手忙腳亂。定投最重要的概念是不管基金資產淨值變化如何，而是對定投所得單位數量和成本的平均成本作比較。
假設一個人連續做了三期定投，第一期的基金資產淨值是1.50令吉，第二期跌到了1令吉。市場再繼續下跌，到了第三期資產淨值只剩下50仙。
先不考慮基金的收費成本，在連續定投了3個月后，很多人會誤以為上述投資者投入的成本就是3者的平均數1令吉。事實上，這並不對，而是要從3期定投所獲得的基金單位數量作衡量。
假設3個月里，投資者一共用450令吉買到了550個基金單位，也就是說平均每單位基金的成本是0.818令吉！（參考表）
定投投資者每月投資的總金額都是固定的，因此基金淨值若上漲，買到的基金份額就少，相反，若基金資產淨值下跌了，所獲得的基金份額也就相應增多。但很多人只看到每份基金淨值的變化，而忽略了定投的重要概念。
一個字“守”
中國著名財經電視製作人李南在其部落格中指出，基金定投最大的好處就是可在市場下跌的過程中有效地分攤買入成本，然后在市場轉好時盡早獲得正收益。
她形容，定投就像種樹一樣， 在市場下跌時，以更便宜價格買到更多樹苗種下去。等到市場好轉時，就靜待果子成熟。而且收成不只是一個果子，是額外多種的那棵樹的果子！不過李南認為，定投的好處需要時間來證明。如果投資者覺得自己經歷的虧損好像越來越大，受不了打擊退場，最后還是虧！只有市場下跌時堅持投資，等到市場反彈后才能收穫比別人更多。
她指出，一般基金定投計劃要持續一個資本市場週期，也就是一個熊市再加上一個牛市。經一輪下跌和上漲之后，投資者就有90%以上的可能性是賺錢！
但怎樣定投才會獲得回酬，是不是所有基金都適合定期定額投資呢？
專家指出，要通過定投獲得回酬，成功的秘訣在于堅持，不能因為基金賬面淨值一時虧損而覺得自己虧了錢，手忙腳亂。定投最重要的概念是不管基金資產淨值變化如何，而是對定投所得單位數量和成本的平均成本作比較。
假設一個人連續做了三期定投，第一期的基金資產淨值是1.50令吉，第二期跌到了1令吉。市場再繼續下跌，到了第三期資產淨值只剩下50仙。
先不考慮基金的收費成本，在連續定投了3個月后，很多人會誤以為上述投資者投入的成本就是3者的平均數1令吉。事實上，這並不對，而是要從3期定投所獲得的基金單位數量作衡量。
假設3個月里，投資者一共用450令吉買到了550個基金單位，也就是說平均每單位基金的成本是0.818令吉！（參考表）
定投投資者每月投資的總金額都是固定的，因此基金淨值若上漲，買到的基金份額就少，相反，若基金資產淨值下跌了，所獲得的基金份額也就相應增多。但很多人只看到每份基金淨值的變化，而忽略了定投的重要概念。
一個字“守”
中國著名財經電視製作人李南在其部落格中指出，基金定投最大的好處就是可在市場下跌的過程中有效地分攤買入成本，然后在市場轉好時盡早獲得正收益。
她形容，定投就像種樹一樣， 在市場下跌時，以更便宜價格買到更多樹苗種下去。等到市場好轉時，就靜待果子成熟。而且收成不只是一個果子，是額外多種的那棵樹的果子！不過李南認為，定投的好處需要時間來證明。如果投資者覺得自己經歷的虧損好像越來越大，受不了打擊退場，最后還是虧！只有市場下跌時堅持投資，等到市場反彈后才能收穫比別人更多。
她指出，一般基金定投計劃要持續一個資本市場週期，也就是一個熊市再加上一個牛市。經一輪下跌和上漲之后，投資者就有90%以上的可能性是賺錢！
股市動盪轉投黃金基金？
黃金等貴金屬抗通脹的特質，在金融震盪幅度加劇的情況下，尤其受到投資者歡迎。由于黃金的防禦需求會漸漸增加，支持著價格走勢，長期內，投資回酬不錯，也有一些專家認為黃金基金可當作給家裡長輩不錯的禮物。
8月5日標準普爾將美國信用評級從AAA級下調一級之后，再加上投資者對歐洲債務危機將惡化的擔憂，進一步刺激了黃金需求。
最近在投資者避險心態作祟，黃金價格率創新高，巴克萊更預計，金價未來3個月內，料升至每安士1830美元（約5435令吉）的天價，突破8月11日的紀錄高點1814.95美元（約5390令吉）。
截至週二，現貨黃金價格上漲0.74%，每安士報1776.89美元（約5277.36令吉）。
平衡組合降低風險
專家也認為，黃金市場一直存在著泡沫。《直覺投資者：展現財富全指南》作者詹森阿波羅沃斯曾預測，未來2年內，人們將大量低價拋售黃金，使金價下跌近一半。可見作為投資者，我們不能盲目跟從，人云亦云。黃金價格再高，似乎也有回跌的一天，所以要學會觀察，才能在泡沫之中賺到，也在泡沫破滅時全身而退。
全球通脹、美元持續貶值、歐元區債務危機、和西亞政局動盪，都促投資者等大量買入黃金避險，推高黃金價格。但也有可能出現黃金供應高過需求，美國為首的發達國家經濟逐漸復甦，大家所擔心歐美債務危機等事情沒發生，黃金的“避險”功能就會失效。
黃金非固定收益工具，不像房子可住，也無法出租，除了自用欣賞，買黃金的人就是賭它會繼續炒高。所以投資黃金也應適可而止，得適時衡量，平衡的投資組合最為重要。
單筆投資趁機調節
不過，眾所皆知，投資要低買高賣才能賺錢，就算黃金價格再能漲，其價格最近激烈上揚得非常驚人。如此高的價位，怎能叫人買得下手？因此，專家認為，投資者目前應保持冷靜，不需要急于採取行動。
單筆投資者可趁股市下跌，金價反彈時調節手中的資金，一來能緩解心理壓力，二來持有現金有助于后來繼續以低成本加碼，增加投資。一般上，金價和股市走勢背道而馳，金價會隨著股市反彈而呈現相反趨勢，即股市起金價跌，股市跌金價起。
至于定期定額的投資人，專家認為，應該繼續扣出成本投資，因為事實上全球經濟的實質供需關係尚未受到明顯衝擊，目前的衝擊主要是信心層面。因此長期內，市場還是可能出現較大的回彈，所以定投所分攤的成本也就會有機會看到成效。
8月5日標準普爾將美國信用評級從AAA級下調一級之后，再加上投資者對歐洲債務危機將惡化的擔憂，進一步刺激了黃金需求。
最近在投資者避險心態作祟，黃金價格率創新高，巴克萊更預計，金價未來3個月內，料升至每安士1830美元（約5435令吉）的天價，突破8月11日的紀錄高點1814.95美元（約5390令吉）。
截至週二，現貨黃金價格上漲0.74%，每安士報1776.89美元（約5277.36令吉）。
平衡組合降低風險
專家也認為，黃金市場一直存在著泡沫。《直覺投資者：展現財富全指南》作者詹森阿波羅沃斯曾預測，未來2年內，人們將大量低價拋售黃金，使金價下跌近一半。可見作為投資者，我們不能盲目跟從，人云亦云。黃金價格再高，似乎也有回跌的一天，所以要學會觀察，才能在泡沫之中賺到，也在泡沫破滅時全身而退。
全球通脹、美元持續貶值、歐元區債務危機、和西亞政局動盪，都促投資者等大量買入黃金避險，推高黃金價格。但也有可能出現黃金供應高過需求，美國為首的發達國家經濟逐漸復甦，大家所擔心歐美債務危機等事情沒發生，黃金的“避險”功能就會失效。
黃金非固定收益工具，不像房子可住，也無法出租，除了自用欣賞，買黃金的人就是賭它會繼續炒高。所以投資黃金也應適可而止，得適時衡量，平衡的投資組合最為重要。
單筆投資趁機調節
不過，眾所皆知，投資要低買高賣才能賺錢，就算黃金價格再能漲，其價格最近激烈上揚得非常驚人。如此高的價位，怎能叫人買得下手？因此，專家認為，投資者目前應保持冷靜，不需要急于採取行動。
單筆投資者可趁股市下跌，金價反彈時調節手中的資金，一來能緩解心理壓力，二來持有現金有助于后來繼續以低成本加碼，增加投資。一般上，金價和股市走勢背道而馳，金價會隨著股市反彈而呈現相反趨勢，即股市起金價跌，股市跌金價起。
至于定期定額的投資人，專家認為，應該繼續扣出成本投資，因為事實上全球經濟的實質供需關係尚未受到明顯衝擊，目前的衝擊主要是信心層面。因此長期內，市場還是可能出現較大的回彈，所以定投所分攤的成本也就會有機會看到成效。
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Thursday, February 3, 2011
2010 Jewels - A good sheen
Extracts of a report by OSK Research
OSK Research said 2010 proved to be a decent year for its Small Cap Jewels although their performance was eclipsed by the liquidity-infused rally, which benefited the bigger caps, particularly from 2H2010.
Of the 50 stocks profiled in our handbook, half posted absolute returns in excess of 20%, with 49% outperforming the FBM Small Cap and FBM KLCI indices.
While the smaller caps are expected to bask in the glory their larger cap peers in 2011, investors should not ignore names with good longer term potential that are trading at attractive valuations.
We like small caps in the construction, property, oil & gas and consumer sectors as beneficiaries of the ETP, elections and earnings themes.
Our current top small cap buy ideas are Kimlun (TP: RM2.34), Plentiude (TP: RM2.78) and CI Holdings (TP: RM4.37).
A fair play. In 2010, we attempted to balance the risks and rewards when selecting the stocks to be included in our OSK Jewels handbook given the anticipated market volatility.
We were comforted in that our selection garnered a hit rate of 74% (defined as stocks with positive returns).
Although this was below the 92% achieved in our 2009 edition – arguably the best year in terms of overall performance for this publication since inception – more than half (52%) of our picks actually outperformed the FBM KLCI (64% in 2009 edition).
The major winners were from the consumer and construction sectors, which dominated the upper quartile in terms of ranked returns. The performance of our top 10 picks was mixed, with 8 of the 10 companies eking out positive returns.
CI Holdings was the star performer (among our Top 5 picks) as its share price more than doubled in 2010. The other notable winners in the 2010 edition (in no particular order) were Sunway Holdings, Mamee, Zhulian, Delloyd, HELP and Handal.
Aside from HELP, the other five stocks were featured for the first time in the handbook. Investors who bought into our top 5 picks would have chalked up an average return of 30% in 2010, a respectable gain and trumping the performance of both the FBM KLCI and FBM Small Cap indices.
More than mere gems. The devoted followers of our handbook would know that two particular companies, QL Resources and KPJ Healthcare, continued to be heavily promoted with the latter being among the top 10 stocks in the 2010 edition.
The commendable gains they notched up in 2009 extended into 2010 as more investors warmed up to their strong longer-term prospects and better coverage by the investment community.
Both stocks were first included in our 2005 and 2006 editions, with their market capitalisation soaring above RM2bn from under RM500m when they were first selected as our jewels.
These two companies continue to be our choice picks for exposure to the consumer and healthcare sectors.
Every dog has its day. While we strove to pick winners within the 18 sectors profiled in the book, there was no guarantee that our stock picks would not disappoint.
There were two disappointments last year, the first being Hai-O, a multi level marketing company which saw its share price nosedive after it dished out an earnings surprise in 2Q10.
The other was Notion VTec, one of the few technology companies well liked for its exposure to the hard drive industry.
In the case of Hai-O, more stringent recruitment policies imposed by the authorities affected the growth of its agency force, resulting in the poor earnings while Notion VTec’s operations were impacted by issues affecting its 2.5” base plate designs.
Subsequent to the findings, we took the unpopular decision to downgrade both the stocks to sells.
In retrospect, it would not have been possible for us to predict the outcomes (the entire market was wrong) as both companies had fairly decent track records and were leaders in their respective industry segments.
Hai-O was for a long time a preferred pick of OSK with a near-flawless record of consistently outperforming OSK and street estimates.
The other stocks that saw their share prices fall were hit by a combination of sector-wide de-rating, poor demand outlook and stock specific challenges.
Small caps to bask in the glory of their larger peers in 2011. While we expect the bigger cap companies to naturally be the winners of the liquidity infused rally, there remain investment opportunities within the small cap space as indirect and cheaper proxies which present good alpha strategies for investors.
The selection of stocks to be included in the 2011 edition will be guided by our broader themes of Earnings, Elections and Easing (3Es), which form the basis of our 2011 investment strategy.
That said, the overall selection process will continue to be based on our qualitative and quantitative benchmarks of good fundamental and operational standing.
The key sectors that encapsulate these themes are construction, oil and gas, property and consumer.
We had earlier included a teaser in our January monthly strategy report issued on 2 Jan entitled: “Of Black Swans and Hidden Jewels”, in which we highlighted some new small cap names that could potentially be included in the 2011 edition.
Construction and oil & gas remain key themes: Kimlun our top pick With the economic transformation program (ETP) shifting to higher gear, we continue to see more goodies going the way of the local construction players.
The Government recently announced 19 more entry point projects (EPP) valued at RM67bn, adding to the list of 18 projects announced earlier.
The most ambitious of the projects unveiled to date is the RM36bn KL Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) development, for which Gamuda has been the appointed the project delivery partner (PDP).
While bigger cap contractors are natural beneficiaries of large scale infrastructure projects, small cap contractors with good execution track records and that have relevant expertise are also winners as they will also benefit from sub-contract works under the private finance initiatives (PFIs).
Our top pick for small cap construction exposure is Kimlun (BUY, TP: RM2.34). We favour Sarawak construction players such as Naim (BUY, TP: RM5.10) and Hock Seng Lee (BUY, TP: RM2.32) which will be buoyed by the impending state election to be held by July.
The oil and gas sector, which saw a paucity of contracts over the last two years, is also seeing a resurgence of interest due to new investments by major oil majors, which will indirectly benefit the likes of service providers, platform fabricators and ancillary vessel operators.
Our preferred exposure for the small cap oil and gas space remain Alam (BUY, TP: RM1.50), Petra Energy(BUY, TP:RM2.16) and Coastal (BUY, TP: RM4.41).
Consumer names still figure prominently: CI Holdings our top pick
The consumer sector was featured most prominently in our handbook given that the sector had been relatively defensive in the face of the downturn in 2009 and performed well for most part of 2010 on the back of the improving consumer sentiment. With the strong spending propensity of Malaysians supported by the wealth effect from an rising stock market, the retailers generally performed better in 2010 on the back of a steady expansion in their toplines.
The food companies, on the other hand, have generally benefited from a stronger Ringgit and various cost-down initiatives, with indications of a better showing in FY11. For 2011, we see the Government’s indirect efforts to promote consumption spending via the abolishment of import duties on goods announced during Budget 2011 being one of the indirect sweeteners for the sector.
As the impact of reduced subsidies on flour and sugar has proven to be insignificant for most food companies under our coverage, we also see F&B companies faring reasonably well this year.
The increasing number of consumer companies undertaking corporate proposals such as bonus issues, share splits (Padini, QL Resources) suggests that their managements are positive on the outlook of the economy and see further value creation from such exercises. This should boost sentiment in the sector.
Our top pick consumer food and beverage (F&B) exposure remains CI Holdings (BUY, TP: RM4.37) as there is room for the F&B segment in Malaysia to expand further.
The other top pick within our small cap consumer universe is Bonia, as the company will benefit from stronger consumption spending and earnings accretion from the previous acquisition of Jeco.
Property sector in the spotlight: Plenitude our top pick The property sector is back in the limelight, thanks to a flurry of positive news of late, in particular the mergers of UEM Land-Sunrise, MRCB-IJM Land (later aborted) and Sunway-SunCity, which will create key property groups with sizeable market capitalization, and the strong market liquidity fuelling appetite for mid to high end landed properties.
We see the strong demand for landed properties to continue in 2011, thus bolstering the earnings of developers. While the larger cap players typically benefit first from the sector- wide rerating due to their exposure to good and strategic landbank, we think it is only a matter of time when the smaller property outfits catch up due to their cheaper valuations. We see good value in a few small cap property stocks such as
Plenitude (BUY, TP: RM2.78) and Bandar Raya Developments (BUY, TP: RM3.00), which stand to benefit from the current upcycle in the sector.
OSK Research said 2010 proved to be a decent year for its Small Cap Jewels although their performance was eclipsed by the liquidity-infused rally, which benefited the bigger caps, particularly from 2H2010.
Of the 50 stocks profiled in our handbook, half posted absolute returns in excess of 20%, with 49% outperforming the FBM Small Cap and FBM KLCI indices.
While the smaller caps are expected to bask in the glory their larger cap peers in 2011, investors should not ignore names with good longer term potential that are trading at attractive valuations.
We like small caps in the construction, property, oil & gas and consumer sectors as beneficiaries of the ETP, elections and earnings themes.
Our current top small cap buy ideas are Kimlun (TP: RM2.34), Plentiude (TP: RM2.78) and CI Holdings (TP: RM4.37).
A fair play. In 2010, we attempted to balance the risks and rewards when selecting the stocks to be included in our OSK Jewels handbook given the anticipated market volatility.
We were comforted in that our selection garnered a hit rate of 74% (defined as stocks with positive returns).
Although this was below the 92% achieved in our 2009 edition – arguably the best year in terms of overall performance for this publication since inception – more than half (52%) of our picks actually outperformed the FBM KLCI (64% in 2009 edition).
The major winners were from the consumer and construction sectors, which dominated the upper quartile in terms of ranked returns. The performance of our top 10 picks was mixed, with 8 of the 10 companies eking out positive returns.
CI Holdings was the star performer (among our Top 5 picks) as its share price more than doubled in 2010. The other notable winners in the 2010 edition (in no particular order) were Sunway Holdings, Mamee, Zhulian, Delloyd, HELP and Handal.
Aside from HELP, the other five stocks were featured for the first time in the handbook. Investors who bought into our top 5 picks would have chalked up an average return of 30% in 2010, a respectable gain and trumping the performance of both the FBM KLCI and FBM Small Cap indices.
More than mere gems. The devoted followers of our handbook would know that two particular companies, QL Resources and KPJ Healthcare, continued to be heavily promoted with the latter being among the top 10 stocks in the 2010 edition.
The commendable gains they notched up in 2009 extended into 2010 as more investors warmed up to their strong longer-term prospects and better coverage by the investment community.
Both stocks were first included in our 2005 and 2006 editions, with their market capitalisation soaring above RM2bn from under RM500m when they were first selected as our jewels.
These two companies continue to be our choice picks for exposure to the consumer and healthcare sectors.
Every dog has its day. While we strove to pick winners within the 18 sectors profiled in the book, there was no guarantee that our stock picks would not disappoint.
There were two disappointments last year, the first being Hai-O, a multi level marketing company which saw its share price nosedive after it dished out an earnings surprise in 2Q10.
The other was Notion VTec, one of the few technology companies well liked for its exposure to the hard drive industry.
In the case of Hai-O, more stringent recruitment policies imposed by the authorities affected the growth of its agency force, resulting in the poor earnings while Notion VTec’s operations were impacted by issues affecting its 2.5” base plate designs.
Subsequent to the findings, we took the unpopular decision to downgrade both the stocks to sells.
In retrospect, it would not have been possible for us to predict the outcomes (the entire market was wrong) as both companies had fairly decent track records and were leaders in their respective industry segments.
Hai-O was for a long time a preferred pick of OSK with a near-flawless record of consistently outperforming OSK and street estimates.
The other stocks that saw their share prices fall were hit by a combination of sector-wide de-rating, poor demand outlook and stock specific challenges.
Small caps to bask in the glory of their larger peers in 2011. While we expect the bigger cap companies to naturally be the winners of the liquidity infused rally, there remain investment opportunities within the small cap space as indirect and cheaper proxies which present good alpha strategies for investors.
The selection of stocks to be included in the 2011 edition will be guided by our broader themes of Earnings, Elections and Easing (3Es), which form the basis of our 2011 investment strategy.
That said, the overall selection process will continue to be based on our qualitative and quantitative benchmarks of good fundamental and operational standing.
The key sectors that encapsulate these themes are construction, oil and gas, property and consumer.
We had earlier included a teaser in our January monthly strategy report issued on 2 Jan entitled: “Of Black Swans and Hidden Jewels”, in which we highlighted some new small cap names that could potentially be included in the 2011 edition.
Construction and oil & gas remain key themes: Kimlun our top pick With the economic transformation program (ETP) shifting to higher gear, we continue to see more goodies going the way of the local construction players.
The Government recently announced 19 more entry point projects (EPP) valued at RM67bn, adding to the list of 18 projects announced earlier.
The most ambitious of the projects unveiled to date is the RM36bn KL Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) development, for which Gamuda has been the appointed the project delivery partner (PDP).
While bigger cap contractors are natural beneficiaries of large scale infrastructure projects, small cap contractors with good execution track records and that have relevant expertise are also winners as they will also benefit from sub-contract works under the private finance initiatives (PFIs).
Our top pick for small cap construction exposure is Kimlun (BUY, TP: RM2.34). We favour Sarawak construction players such as Naim (BUY, TP: RM5.10) and Hock Seng Lee (BUY, TP: RM2.32) which will be buoyed by the impending state election to be held by July.
The oil and gas sector, which saw a paucity of contracts over the last two years, is also seeing a resurgence of interest due to new investments by major oil majors, which will indirectly benefit the likes of service providers, platform fabricators and ancillary vessel operators.
Our preferred exposure for the small cap oil and gas space remain Alam (BUY, TP: RM1.50), Petra Energy(BUY, TP:RM2.16) and Coastal (BUY, TP: RM4.41).
Consumer names still figure prominently: CI Holdings our top pick
The consumer sector was featured most prominently in our handbook given that the sector had been relatively defensive in the face of the downturn in 2009 and performed well for most part of 2010 on the back of the improving consumer sentiment. With the strong spending propensity of Malaysians supported by the wealth effect from an rising stock market, the retailers generally performed better in 2010 on the back of a steady expansion in their toplines.
The food companies, on the other hand, have generally benefited from a stronger Ringgit and various cost-down initiatives, with indications of a better showing in FY11. For 2011, we see the Government’s indirect efforts to promote consumption spending via the abolishment of import duties on goods announced during Budget 2011 being one of the indirect sweeteners for the sector.
As the impact of reduced subsidies on flour and sugar has proven to be insignificant for most food companies under our coverage, we also see F&B companies faring reasonably well this year.
The increasing number of consumer companies undertaking corporate proposals such as bonus issues, share splits (Padini, QL Resources) suggests that their managements are positive on the outlook of the economy and see further value creation from such exercises. This should boost sentiment in the sector.
Our top pick consumer food and beverage (F&B) exposure remains CI Holdings (BUY, TP: RM4.37) as there is room for the F&B segment in Malaysia to expand further.
The other top pick within our small cap consumer universe is Bonia, as the company will benefit from stronger consumption spending and earnings accretion from the previous acquisition of Jeco.
Property sector in the spotlight: Plenitude our top pick The property sector is back in the limelight, thanks to a flurry of positive news of late, in particular the mergers of UEM Land-Sunrise, MRCB-IJM Land (later aborted) and Sunway-SunCity, which will create key property groups with sizeable market capitalization, and the strong market liquidity fuelling appetite for mid to high end landed properties.
We see the strong demand for landed properties to continue in 2011, thus bolstering the earnings of developers. While the larger cap players typically benefit first from the sector- wide rerating due to their exposure to good and strategic landbank, we think it is only a matter of time when the smaller property outfits catch up due to their cheaper valuations. We see good value in a few small cap property stocks such as
Plenitude (BUY, TP: RM2.78) and Bandar Raya Developments (BUY, TP: RM3.00), which stand to benefit from the current upcycle in the sector.
2011全球財經大預言
全球經濟經歷了2008至2009年的全球金融海嘯，2010年至2011年仍餘波蕩漾。
2010年的雙底衰退隨美國去年杪祭出次輪量化寬鬆，暫時消解了疑慮。2010庚寅金虎年無法解開的困局，會否於寓意“動如脫兔”的2011辛卯兔年，有了新的動向與格局？
國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）最近預測，全球實質經濟體經濟成長，由原有的4.2%調高至4.4%，2012年保持4.5%。
該組織也預測，新興經濟體的經濟成長，超越受經濟衰退、債信危機打擊的美國與歐洲。
新興經濟體成長以中國、印度馬首是瞻，但成長路上並不平順，隨著食品、原產品價格暴漲，高通膨是兩個新經濟體政府的一大挑戰。
在開展經濟成長的旅程中，如何制定適當策略壓服高通膨，則是新興經濟體後院的事；這後院一旦失火，經濟成長的前門，亦將殃及池魚，甚至生靈塗炭，不可不慎！
預言：人民幣推升亞幣？ 祈求：財源滾滾人讚好
若中國真被通膨章魚纏得無法脫身，可能順水推舟讓人民幣升值，一方面更合了美國胃口；儘管人民幣升值對中國出口企業構成壓力，但也降低進口商品價格，特別是以美元計價的一些原料。
若到達此種程度，鄰近的亞洲貨幣，包括大馬的馬幣可能受帶動，而跟著升值。
預言：美股牛熊角力？ 祈求：百尺竿頭節節高
市場目前的共識很明確－美國經濟可望持續回穩，股市會有好的一年；公債則因為恐懼因素消失，變得較有風險；“風險資產”像是股票和商品，可望在中國及新興市場帶動下，持續有所成長。
雖然絕大多數機構看好兔年美股仍持續飆升，但至少有兩家投資公司警告，美股今年來到高點後，可能自此滑落，步入熊市。
Ned Davis Research投資團隊，預期在今年上半年，標普500指數就可望回到2007年的歷史高點1565.15。不過他們也預期，來到年中的高點時，可能造成利率上升，10年期公債利率有機會到達4%或更高，提昇投資者的樂觀情緒。
他們認為，站上高點，也代表自2009年3月以來的牛市循環走到底，開始新的熊市。要是如此，這次的牛市歷時長達9季。自1900年以來，共34個牛市，只有10個到達9季或更長。
同樣持“終極熊市”看法的，還有United-ICAP首席技術分析師金莫曼（Walter Zimmermann）。他警告，一旦崩跌，多樣化的投資策略也保護不了投資者的損失，就像前次金融風暴。理由就在，這些資產投資漲跌密切相關。
預言：法引爆新歐債危機？ 祈求：時來運轉福滿門
很多人認為法國與德國一樣是歐盟強國，但法國的財政赤字狀況比意大利更嚴重，而且失業率高、經濟增速緩慢。專家指出，法國相當抗拒改革，任何一丁點工時延長、延後退休或是公共福利調整，都會引發大規模抗議。因此，若要細數哪一國會步上愛爾蘭、希臘、葡萄牙以及西班牙的債務危機後塵，非法國莫屬。
預言：全球6月轉運？ 祈求：扭轉乾坤財運到
美國通膨升溫，聯儲局未來半年內加息的可能性大增，第二輪量化寬鬆政策將在6月到期，那將是一個重要的時間轉折點。
經濟學家預測，如果量化寬鬆政策的累積效應不斷得到體現，經濟真正步入復甦階段，聯儲局可能會突然啟動加息進程，一旦如此，將促使全球資本迅速回流美國，美元將會迅速出現強勁反彈。
謝國忠指出，美國財政刺激的目的顯而易見，就是想讓奧巴馬能在2012年連任。他分析，要令奧巴馬得以連任，就需要有3個條件：新興經濟體繼續通膨，維持了美國的出口；歐洲的主權債務危機支撐了美元的價值，抵銷聯儲局的量化寬鬆；原油價格不會飆升，以減少美國刺激政策的效果。
預言：美元人為貶值？ 祈求：財源廣進鴻圖展
疲弱的美元也是美國拯救經濟的手段之一，今年聯儲局可能也讓美元逐步貶值，以反映美國的高通膨，及短期利率大大低於通膨率，也即負實際利率。如果聯儲局能在將5%的負實際利率保持10年，美國的負債可減少40%，會回到歷史平均的水平上。
多數分析師預測，聯儲局不會在美國經濟轉強之前提高利率。按照這個邏輯，因受制於美國經濟疲軟以及無力吸引資本的低利率，美元可能復甦無望。不過，雖然利率較低，但美國經濟仍將持續疲弱，可能影響美元走勢。
預言：商品續比天高？ 祈求：金兔增產慶豐收
“吃飯皇帝大”，但兔年基於全球氣候異常，到處天災人禍，世人吃飯與溫飽問題，因為食品、原產品價格節節走高，潛在打擊一些國家的經濟成長，並可能會造成社會動亂的根源。
IMF提出警訊，高企的大宗商品和食品價格可能危害發展中國家的宏觀經濟穩定，並引發社會和政治局勢緊張。專家預測，不管全球經濟如何轉變，也不管金融形勢如何轉化，短期內農產品、糧油的牛市格局似乎難以撼動。
全球氣候的異常變化將把所有農產品價格推至歷史高位。厄爾尼諾才剛過去，拉尼娜接踵而至，在澳洲小麥產區遭受水患的同時，南美阿根廷的大豆產區卻飽受熱浪襲擊，德國《油世界》因此估計其減產規模將達20%以上。
專家指出，中國、印度等新興國家強大的市場需求將會使供需長期處於緊張狀態，兔年全球農產品庫存和庫存消費比將會進一步走低，農產品價格未來仍將受到成本推動、災害天氣、消費增長、流動性支撐四大因素的整體發力而居高不下。
儘管一些國家如中國、印度政府，努力管控價格，但對類似管控可能對某些產品短期價格產生影響，但長時間而言，仍難以產生根本性的作用。
預言：全球面臨高通膨？ 祈求：和氣生財萬事好
中國去年第四季國內生產總值（GDP）成長高於預期，升至9.8%，2010整年的成長則增加10.3%，一舉超越日本，成為世界第二經濟大國。
不過，中國的經濟過熱也引發嚴重通膨：12月消費價格指數（CPI）4.6%、生產價格指數（PPI）5.9%，顯示控制物價措施效果仍然有限，通膨壓力依舊居高不下。
類似中國的通膨情況，皆在在蔓延至全球其他地區。
通膨使全民購買力降低，“收入與分配受扭曲，加上好些國家沒有社會保障系統，或者涵蓋有限，尤使城市低收入戶最為脆弱。
一窮二白式的“發窮惡”，會藉各種方式爆發出來，中國乃至其他發展中國家發生的抗議與搶購只是端倪，這會是全球社會未來的亂源。
星洲日報／財經‧2011.02.02
2010年的雙底衰退隨美國去年杪祭出次輪量化寬鬆，暫時消解了疑慮。2010庚寅金虎年無法解開的困局，會否於寓意“動如脫兔”的2011辛卯兔年，有了新的動向與格局？
國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）最近預測，全球實質經濟體經濟成長，由原有的4.2%調高至4.4%，2012年保持4.5%。
該組織也預測，新興經濟體的經濟成長，超越受經濟衰退、債信危機打擊的美國與歐洲。
新興經濟體成長以中國、印度馬首是瞻，但成長路上並不平順，隨著食品、原產品價格暴漲，高通膨是兩個新經濟體政府的一大挑戰。
在開展經濟成長的旅程中，如何制定適當策略壓服高通膨，則是新興經濟體後院的事；這後院一旦失火，經濟成長的前門，亦將殃及池魚，甚至生靈塗炭，不可不慎！
預言：人民幣推升亞幣？ 祈求：財源滾滾人讚好
若中國真被通膨章魚纏得無法脫身，可能順水推舟讓人民幣升值，一方面更合了美國胃口；儘管人民幣升值對中國出口企業構成壓力，但也降低進口商品價格，特別是以美元計價的一些原料。
若到達此種程度，鄰近的亞洲貨幣，包括大馬的馬幣可能受帶動，而跟著升值。
預言：美股牛熊角力？ 祈求：百尺竿頭節節高
市場目前的共識很明確－美國經濟可望持續回穩，股市會有好的一年；公債則因為恐懼因素消失，變得較有風險；“風險資產”像是股票和商品，可望在中國及新興市場帶動下，持續有所成長。
雖然絕大多數機構看好兔年美股仍持續飆升，但至少有兩家投資公司警告，美股今年來到高點後，可能自此滑落，步入熊市。
Ned Davis Research投資團隊，預期在今年上半年，標普500指數就可望回到2007年的歷史高點1565.15。不過他們也預期，來到年中的高點時，可能造成利率上升，10年期公債利率有機會到達4%或更高，提昇投資者的樂觀情緒。
他們認為，站上高點，也代表自2009年3月以來的牛市循環走到底，開始新的熊市。要是如此，這次的牛市歷時長達9季。自1900年以來，共34個牛市，只有10個到達9季或更長。
同樣持“終極熊市”看法的，還有United-ICAP首席技術分析師金莫曼（Walter Zimmermann）。他警告，一旦崩跌，多樣化的投資策略也保護不了投資者的損失，就像前次金融風暴。理由就在，這些資產投資漲跌密切相關。
預言：法引爆新歐債危機？ 祈求：時來運轉福滿門
很多人認為法國與德國一樣是歐盟強國，但法國的財政赤字狀況比意大利更嚴重，而且失業率高、經濟增速緩慢。專家指出，法國相當抗拒改革，任何一丁點工時延長、延後退休或是公共福利調整，都會引發大規模抗議。因此，若要細數哪一國會步上愛爾蘭、希臘、葡萄牙以及西班牙的債務危機後塵，非法國莫屬。
預言：全球6月轉運？ 祈求：扭轉乾坤財運到
美國通膨升溫，聯儲局未來半年內加息的可能性大增，第二輪量化寬鬆政策將在6月到期，那將是一個重要的時間轉折點。
經濟學家預測，如果量化寬鬆政策的累積效應不斷得到體現，經濟真正步入復甦階段，聯儲局可能會突然啟動加息進程，一旦如此，將促使全球資本迅速回流美國，美元將會迅速出現強勁反彈。
謝國忠指出，美國財政刺激的目的顯而易見，就是想讓奧巴馬能在2012年連任。他分析，要令奧巴馬得以連任，就需要有3個條件：新興經濟體繼續通膨，維持了美國的出口；歐洲的主權債務危機支撐了美元的價值，抵銷聯儲局的量化寬鬆；原油價格不會飆升，以減少美國刺激政策的效果。
預言：美元人為貶值？ 祈求：財源廣進鴻圖展
疲弱的美元也是美國拯救經濟的手段之一，今年聯儲局可能也讓美元逐步貶值，以反映美國的高通膨，及短期利率大大低於通膨率，也即負實際利率。如果聯儲局能在將5%的負實際利率保持10年，美國的負債可減少40%，會回到歷史平均的水平上。
多數分析師預測，聯儲局不會在美國經濟轉強之前提高利率。按照這個邏輯，因受制於美國經濟疲軟以及無力吸引資本的低利率，美元可能復甦無望。不過，雖然利率較低，但美國經濟仍將持續疲弱，可能影響美元走勢。
預言：商品續比天高？ 祈求：金兔增產慶豐收
“吃飯皇帝大”，但兔年基於全球氣候異常，到處天災人禍，世人吃飯與溫飽問題，因為食品、原產品價格節節走高，潛在打擊一些國家的經濟成長，並可能會造成社會動亂的根源。
IMF提出警訊，高企的大宗商品和食品價格可能危害發展中國家的宏觀經濟穩定，並引發社會和政治局勢緊張。專家預測，不管全球經濟如何轉變，也不管金融形勢如何轉化，短期內農產品、糧油的牛市格局似乎難以撼動。
全球氣候的異常變化將把所有農產品價格推至歷史高位。厄爾尼諾才剛過去，拉尼娜接踵而至，在澳洲小麥產區遭受水患的同時，南美阿根廷的大豆產區卻飽受熱浪襲擊，德國《油世界》因此估計其減產規模將達20%以上。
專家指出，中國、印度等新興國家強大的市場需求將會使供需長期處於緊張狀態，兔年全球農產品庫存和庫存消費比將會進一步走低，農產品價格未來仍將受到成本推動、災害天氣、消費增長、流動性支撐四大因素的整體發力而居高不下。
儘管一些國家如中國、印度政府，努力管控價格，但對類似管控可能對某些產品短期價格產生影響，但長時間而言，仍難以產生根本性的作用。
預言：全球面臨高通膨？ 祈求：和氣生財萬事好
中國去年第四季國內生產總值（GDP）成長高於預期，升至9.8%，2010整年的成長則增加10.3%，一舉超越日本，成為世界第二經濟大國。
不過，中國的經濟過熱也引發嚴重通膨：12月消費價格指數（CPI）4.6%、生產價格指數（PPI）5.9%，顯示控制物價措施效果仍然有限，通膨壓力依舊居高不下。
類似中國的通膨情況，皆在在蔓延至全球其他地區。
通膨使全民購買力降低，“收入與分配受扭曲，加上好些國家沒有社會保障系統，或者涵蓋有限，尤使城市低收入戶最為脆弱。
一窮二白式的“發窮惡”，會藉各種方式爆發出來，中國乃至其他發展中國家發生的抗議與搶購只是端倪，這會是全球社會未來的亂源。
星洲日報／財經‧2011.02.02
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